A tsunami of private capital has left Russia and Ukraine, the UK has lost its wealth hub crown, and the US is fading fast as a magnet for the world’s wealthy, with the UAE expected to overtake it by attracting the largest net inflows of millionaires globally in 2022, according to the latest Henley Global Citizens Report.
Data from the residence and citizenship by investment advisory firm features the latest projected 2022 net inflows and outflows of US dollar millionaires forecast by New World Wealth.
The HNWI migration figures focus only on people with wealth exceeding $1 million and who have truly moved - namely, those who stay in their new country for more than half of the year.
As expected, Russia has suffered the biggest emigration of millionaires over the past six months, with forecast net outflows of 15 000 HNWIs by the end of 2022 - a massive 15% of its HNWI population and 9 500 more than in 2019, pre-pandemic.
Russia’s invasion is in turn driving a steep spike in outgoing HNWIs from Ukraine, which is predicted to suffer its highest net loss in the country’s history – 2 800 millionaires (42% of its HNWI population) and a net loss of 2 400 more than 2019, the report showed.
Countries gaining and losing millionaires in 2022
Forecast figures in the Henley Global Citizens Report show the top 10 countries in terms of net inflows of HNWIs in 2022 will be the UAE, Australia, Singapore, Israel, Switzerland, the US, Portugal, Greece, Canada, and New Zealand.
Large numbers of millionaires are also expected to move to ‘the three Ms’: Malta, Mauritius, and Monaco. On the flip side, the 10 countries where the highest net outflows of HNWIs are predicted are Russia, China, India, Hong Kong, Ukraine, Brazil, the UK, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia.
Dr Juerg Steffen, CEO of Henley & Partners, says HNWI migration was a rising trend over the past decade until, understandably, it dipped in 2020 and 2021 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
“The 2022 forecast reflects an extremely volatile environment worldwide. By the end of the year, 88 000 millionaires are expected to have relocated to new countries, 22 000 fewer than in 2019 when 110 000 moved. Next year, the largest millionaire migration flows on record are predicted — 125 000 — as affluent investors and their families earnestly prepare for the new post-Covid world, with an as yet-to-be-revealed rearrangement of the global order, and the ever-present threat of climate change as a constant backdrop,” says Steffen
Andrew Amoils, Head of Research at New World Wealth says HNWI migration figures are an excellent barometer for the health of an economy. “Affluent individuals are extremely mobile, and their movements can provide an early warning signal into future country trends. Countries that draw wealthy individuals and families to migrate to their shores tend to be robust, with low crime rates, competitive tax rates, and attractive business opportunities.”
The data shows approximately 4 500 HNWI have left South Africa over the past decade. Most of these individuals have gone to the UK, Australia and the USA. New World Wealth says significant numbers have also gone to Portugal, Switzerland, Israel, Mauritius, New Zealand, the UAE, Canada, Monaco and Malta.
Mauritius - Africa’s wealth magnet
The Indian Ocean island nation Mauritius has attracted a steady number of high-net-worth individuals over the past decade, perhaps due to the ease of conducting business there. Mauritius is also known for its safety, competitive tax rates and fast-growing financial services sector.
According to the Africa Wealth Report 2022, Mauritius is now home to 4 800 high-net-worth individuals compared to 2 700 a decade ago - 78% growth. Approximately 150 millionaires are expected to move to Mauritius in 2022, mainly from South Africa and Europe.
Portugal – a perennial favorite
Portugal continues to see a steady inflow of high-net-worth individuals, fueled by its top-rated Golden Residence Permit Program, which has attracted large numbers of millionaires from Brazil, China, Russia, South Africa, and Turkey and over the past decade. Lisbon and the Algarve’s affluent Golden Triangle are especially popular. A net inflow of approximately 1 300 high-net-worth individuals is expected in Portugal in 2022.
UK – loses its wealth hub crown
The UK has traditionally been seen as one of the world’s top destinations for migrating millionaires and for many years (from 1980 to 2010) the country attracted huge numbers of affluent individuals from Africa (especially South Africa), Asia (especially India and Russia), Europe, and the Middle East.
This trend began to reverse around five years ago when, for the first time, more high-net-worth individuals left the country than entered. Notably, between 2017 and 2022 the UK has lost approximately 12 000 more millionaires than it has gained. Possible reasons for the exodus include the Brexit impact and rising taxes on high-net-worth individuals.
Although this trend may flatten out over time, it is clear that the UK is certainly no longer seen as a prime destination for the world’s wealthiest individuals. That title has now firmly shifted to the likes of Australia, Switzerland and the UAE.
The UK nevertheless attracts a steady stream of high-net-worth individuals from Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. However, outflows still outstrip inflows and for 2022 a net outflow of 1,500 HNWIs is projected. Most are expected to move to the EU (Switzerland, Portugal, Ireland, Malta, and Monaco especially). Significant numbers are also expected to move to Australia, the UAE, and the USA.
The UK has also seen large internal high-net-worth migration over the past few years, with many leaving London for affluent towns such as Henley, Marlow, Taplow and Weybridge.
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