Independent energy expert Ted Blom says he expects load shedding to be a reality for the next five years, painting a grim picture about the current bout of energy shortages South Africa finds itself in.
"There is no reserve margin at Eskom," says Blom as he outlined the current state of affairs during his live-streamed interview with the Free Market Foundation (FMF) on Monday, 18 January, yet again warning that drastic measures need to be implemented to "allow the private sector to help satisfy demand".
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The high-risk shortfall the country faces, just as maintenance continues at Koeberg Station in the Western Cape a month earlier than expected due to a leak, means the current load shedding will be a reality at least until April, with Blom suggesting the slippery deficiency slope we're facing is likely to continue until Winter.
According to Blom, as soon as Eskom goes over 11 000 megawatts, there is a need to put load shedding into effect - with the below forecast created by the energy provider showing contingency forecasts for planned and unplanned outages. However, with the watts running above 20 000 for most of the period detailed below, Blom estimates that there a high-risk of planned load shedding beyond this period well into June with the likelihood of "Level 6 and as high-up as Level 8 and above" to be expected.
Eskom explains the various stages of load shedding as, "Stage 1 allows for up to 1000 MW of the national load to be shed. Stage 2 allows for up to 2000 MW of the nationalload to be shed. Stage 3 allows for up to 3000 MW of the national load to be shed. Stage 4 allows for up to 4000 MW of the national load to be shed".
The below forecast outlines an average shortfall of 9 000 megawatts - which Blom says is actually stage 9 of Load shedding, which means "stage 6 is pretty much a certainty".
"It's a nightmare for industry, it's terrible for investment but those are the facts that Eskom has put on the table in the intervening period and only a fool would ignore the facts."
(Source: Eskom - Ted Blom, FMF YouTube)
The outlook according to Eskom's own data is worse than last year, with 2021 pegged to be the energy provider's worst year, says Blom.
With ongoing maintenance to reconfigure and remanufactured being undertaken this year, Blom estimates cost required to be around R600bn.
When asked whether a national blackout is a possibility within the next five years, Blom says while South Africa is one of the most sophisticated systems in the world, there are two key factors at play - Human error and technical failure play a part when balancing SA's grid.
"While it's impossible to predict human error, technological error is a different case. If you running the system as hard as you are now and you switching it on and off, on and off, electrical transformers are not designed for this," explains Blom.
"Every time you taking a load down and then peaking it four hours later, then you take it down and then you peak it again, you're looking for trouble. Oil condensate cools in the transformer and forms a mound at the bottom. Eventually, that mound will grow and it will arch and blow out. If the control room is not awake to keep the balance in the grid, this could cause a severe meltdown. And they happen, it's happened in the US and India."
The other side of the coin, questions Blom is how long will it take for Eskom to recover if this kind of meltdown did happen.
"It depends on the level of damage done. If you are talking to severe damage you're looking at about 10 years to never. But let's remain positive that the people at the control room are competent and very, very alert."
Blom agrees with FMF that competition for energy generations is crucial, "so consumers can go between service providers and get the best offering".
"We have suffered enough un this current management. I call on the minister to open up the playing field. Let the private sector satisfy the demand especially because the profit umbrella is so high. It is four times what it should be - a competitor could come in at a quarter at what Eskom is charging. Give the people the incentive, give them the tax right-offs so they can invest in private energy - as there is so much red tape with any competitive threat to Eskom.
"If we don't do this, and I'm backed by the
CSIR, we are looking at level 5 to level 8 load-shedding, over the next five years," says Blom.
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