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No boom, but not all doom and gloom

21 Sep 2007
"The party is over" shout the headlines in the global media and at home Tito Mboweni has hiked interest rates yet again and the National Credit Act (NCA) makes it harder to obtain bond finance.

"The tenor of media coverage is that the unprecedented seven year global boom is faltering," says RealNet property group CEO Tjaart van der Walt.

At the same time however, First National Bank also expects the market to recover next year, and Van der Walt shares that view.

"Admittedly a process of adjustment still has to work its way through. But while we are frequently compared with the US market in terms of trends, comparisons of the business fundamentals at this stage are tenuous at best.

"Our current household debt levels are admittedly too high at about 76% of disposable income, which explains why the Reserve Bank has tightened interest rates.

"But our banks have been more responsible in their lending and we don't have the securitisation problems of the US where home loan books has been lumped together and marketed as debt instruments to the likes of hedge funds.

"A key point of comparison is that the average length of time on the market for South African properties is 10 weeks according to the FNB property barometer, compared with up to nine months in the US according to The Times of London."

So should consumers be concerned about our slow down in house price increases?

Absolutely not, he says.

"The fact is homeowners, investors, developers and estate agents and all other stakeholders in our market for that matter, became accustomed to excessive growth in property prices.

"Price rises of 30% and more a year in respect of any asset class are simply unsustainable. Some sort of correction was needed and that's precisely what has happened.

"But the fact is the property market is still fundamentally sound, driven by broadening demand, increased investment spending and good general economic growth of around 4,5% a year. And right now there are certainly property bargains to be had."

Richard Gahagan, MD of Property24, believes the slowdown will be short-lived. "The current buyer's market is bound to attract investors and homebuyers who are able to afford the higher repayments," he says. "This bodes well for in the long term, as the various phases are necessary in order to stabilise the market."

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